Report Compiled: 2020-05-17

Johns Hopkins Repo Commit: c878cd0 Max Data Date: 2020-05-16

NYT Repo Commit: 966d977 Max Data Date: 2020-05-16

This is an automatically generated report containing analyses of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iowa and elsewhere. All models under consideration here are stochastic SEIR compartmental models, fit using Approximate Bayesian Computation using the ABSEIR software for R. Source code available upon request. Questions should be directed to grant-brown@uiowa.edu

There are two general classes of model:

  1. Models which use a single location of mortality data to estimate the epidemic curves
  2. Models which are used to provide informative prior information about the epidemic in Iowa, based on analyses of other locations.

In both cases, we have to make assumptions about the shape of the underlying contact distributions. Namely, can we assume that contact in each location shifted within one week of governmental action, or is the shape of the curve more complex. With that in mind, we look at both types of models. In addition, for the State of Iowa, we consider whether or not it is most reasonable to assume that intervention efforts began on 3-17-2020 or 4-4-2020, which correspond to the emergency declaration and the official closing of schools.

** A huge array of models are presented in this document, and they are not reviewed by our team of experts before posting to this page. Some of these are guaranteed to be inadequate or misleading if interpreted by themselves. These results should be considered raw material for follow-up reporting, investigation, and decision-making.**

R0 Summaries: Single Location Analyses

Mortality Estimates: Single Location Analyses

Here, we present the compared results of analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak in a number of locations. We begin by comparing the estimated posterior distribution of mortality rates in each location.

Model Fit: Single Location Analyses

In the following tabbed sections, we present diverse output from the single location models, including projections over time of the following important quantities:

Illinois

Washington

Minnesota

Iowa (3-17)

Iowa (4-4)

Illinois (Spline Model)

Washington (Spline Model)

Minnesota (Spline Model)

Iowa (3-17, Spline Model)

Iowa (4-4, Spline Model)

Iowa Specific Projections

In the following sections, we apply the estimated intervention intensity from the previous analyses to the situation in Iowa, with the hope that by borrowing information from other locations we can improve the precision of our projections.

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Table of projected mortality by model/assumption

Mortality As Of: Training Location Intervention Date Model Type 10th Percentile 50th Percentile 90th Percentile
2020-06-27 Illinois 04-04-2020 Shift 831.0588 1176.1280 1984.2038
2020-06-27 Illinois 04-04-2020 Spline 611.6289 979.7501 1976.3977
2020-06-27 Illinois 03-17-2020 Shift 1282.6845 1814.8648 2681.8918
2020-06-27 Illinois 03-17-2020 Spline 851.4967 1443.5462 3351.8650
2020-06-27 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 662.3628 1219.3592 2879.7847
2020-06-27 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 751.4522 1515.1032 3084.2341
2020-06-27 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 1130.9762 1803.9829 2688.3183
2020-06-27 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 825.9264 1651.9440 4453.4868
2020-06-27 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Shift 605.4654 948.4255 1544.4637
2020-06-27 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Spline 690.4121 964.2661 1623.9604
2020-06-27 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Shift 1236.5347 1760.8717 2839.1902
2020-06-27 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Spline 799.1925 1621.5922 4212.1622
2020-06-27 Washington 04-04-2020 Shift 677.7430 918.3817 1356.5989
2020-06-27 Washington 04-04-2020 Spline 626.3873 1016.8814 2364.6582
2020-06-27 Washington 03-17-2020 Shift 1219.2106 1696.4890 2474.7750
2020-06-27 Washington 03-17-2020 Spline 1146.0262 2268.9141 6418.7125
2020-05-31 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 428.0226 536.0946 691.9892
2020-05-31 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 420.3108 609.8351 744.3344
2020-05-31 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 499.9174 608.7237 726.4126
2020-05-31 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 472.5144 578.3035 721.2701